Heaters and Downswings: Variance in Heads Up Poker

Posted on Jan 08, 2009 by Gugel in Variance

There was an great post on variance on 2+2 about a week ago that included a link to an Excel spreadsheet. As you probably know, the upswings and downstreaks are a lot more extreme in heads up than 6-max and fullring. In fact, heads up is probably the most volatile form of poker. Fortunately, it is also the most profitable.

Anyway, I want to give credit to MasterLJ for bringing my attention to the tool and more importantly, Kimberly at FFD Poker Forum for creating the spreadsheet in the first place. I made some minor adjustments and tweaks and I think you’ll find it really useful to help you get a better grasp of what you can expect.

To give you an idea what kind of variance is typical, I’ll share some of my results.
In the next 100 hands I play, there is a 34% chance I will make between $9.65 and $141.81. On other hand, there is also a 34% chance I will make between $9.65 and -$122.51. The probability that I am a long-term winner in the game is 96.6%. My average profit per hour is $32.48.

I’d love to hear what your stats are. Download the spreadsheet and fill in the values using Hold’Em Manager or PokerTracker3.

Update: Here’s another post for further reading about downswings and bankroll management.

Tags: , , , ,

How I Made $2,829.65 in Rakeback in 2009

I made $2,829.65 in rakeback in 2009. Every week, I'd get that beautiful email that said somewhere between $25 and $50 bucks (depending on how many hands I played) was transferred to my account.  Watch the video below to learn more.

You can sign up for rakeback right here on AnskyPoker.com.  We're an official affiliate of RakeTheRake.com, one of the big boys in the rakeback industry.  Can you go to RakeTheRake.com and sign up right there?  Sure, but you won't get my free bonus - my custom HU HEM config!  It's helped lots of people get better reads on their heads up opponents and it's yours free if you sign up now.

Click here for more information about how to get started!

2 Responses to “Heaters and Downswings: Variance in Heads Up Poker”

  1. Heads Up Bankroll Management | AnskyPoker.com

    24. Feb, 2009

    [...] up poker has a quite a bit more variance than 6max or fullring.  In other words, when you run hot, you’re really making bank, but you [...]

  2. Ansky on Tilt – Been There, Done That

    07. Oct, 2009

    [...] results. I pride myself on being able to take a 1 outer and not blink, and remove my emotions from variance, the element of the game which we cannot control. It’s funny, people typically think I am a [...]

Leave a Reply