Baluga Theorem

Posted on Apr 08, 2009 by Gugel in Hand Reading and Tells, Poker Theorems

This is the 2nd post of Theorem Week. If you havent done so already, check out Zeebo Theorem. In this post, were going to dive right into the Baluga Theorem.

Simply put, the Baluga Theorem states that you should think twice about whether your one pair hand is good when youre facing a raise (and especially a checkraise) on the turn. Thats not to say that one pair is never good, but a raise/checkraise on the turn from your opponent generally means he has a very good hand and warning bells should start ringing in your head. Hell probably have at least top pair with a good kicker or some kind of combo draw (i.e. pair + draw, flush + straight draw).

Lets look at an example.

Hero (Button) ($100.00)
SB ($100.00)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J♠, K♣
Hero bets $3, SB calls $2

Flop: ($6) J♣, 5, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($16) T♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB raises to $38

We should probably fold here. Our one pair hand is rarely good and even if we are ahead of a draw, there are a lot of very dangerous cards that can come on the river that we would have to fold to. It is unlikely that JQ or worse would play it this way and were putting ourselves in an extremely poor spot if we call.

Counter-Strategy
If your opponent is aware of the Baluga Theorem, raising or checkraising the turn as a bluff can be very profitable.

Reliability
Medium-High: The Baluga Theorem was forged in 6max games, but its still pretty reliable for heads up.

In the next installment, well talk about Clarkmeisters Theorem.


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4 Responses to Baluga Theorem

  1. [...] ← The Best of TwoPlusTwo Baluga Theorem [...]

  2. Nimby88

    08. Apr, 2009

    Interesting hand. I play 100nl and 200nl hu myself pretty succesfully. I think that board from villains perspective is pretty bad to check raise de turn. I think your gonna check behind with medium hands and drawing hands so often. Because you dont wanna bet fold something like 9t there. And you are likely to bet fold nearly ever hand less than 2 pair. I would definatly lead the turn with 2p or better. But also with j9 /kj/qj pretty often. Id much rather cr a drawing hand here.

    As for the baluga theorom, i feel its very outdated against good opponents with balanced ranges.

  3. Nimby88

    08. Apr, 2009

    btw i like your site. The information is a little basic for me but its good info for a starting heads up player. I always loved Anskys vids on Pokersavvy. Especially because our playing styles are very similair . If i move up a bit in the future might ask him as a coach.

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