100k-Hand Variance Simulator

Posted on Jun 03, 2009 by Gugel in Math and Statistics

Ever wonder what your graph will look like over the next 100,000 hands you play?

Poker Variance Simulator

Poker Variance Simulator

Head over to the Tools section and check out the Variance Simulator (requires Excel).  Just enter your winrate and standard deviation and keep pressing F9.  It will automatically generate what your next 100,000 hands might look like.  You might be very surprised how much variance you’re likely to experience, even over a pretty significant sample size.

With a 3PTBB/100 winrate and a standard deviation of 60, I got the following results over ten 100,000-hand samples:

1: +40 buyins
2: -20 buyins
3: +80 buyins
4: 0 buyins
5: +40 buyins
6: -5 buyins
7: +60 buyins
8: +85 buyins
9: +20 buyins
10: +40 buyins

How to Find Your Standard Deviation in Poker Tracker 3

Just open up PT3 and click on “More Detail” in the “Session Notes” tab.  As an alternative, refer to this 2+2 post.

How to Find Your Standard Deviation in Hold Em Manager

Open HEM then go to the “Reports” tab.  On the left, click on the + sign.  Add Standard Deviation in BB (not bb).  Click save, refresh, and you’re done!

Note: I actually posted this on 2+2 a while a back but I forgot to post it here.  Whoops.  Also, I’d like to give credit to the person that actually developed this spreadsheet but unfortunately, I have no idea who it is.

Buy Hand Histories

The more you know about your competition, the more you can profitably exploit them.  You can buy hand histories to boost your Hold'em Manager or PokerTracker database and help you better reads on your opponents.

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One Response to “100k-Hand Variance Simulator”

  1. Neko

    03. Jan, 2010

    Hey Ansky,

    Inspired by this post/spreadsheet I wrote an online simulator that is a little more complete than this. Check it out at http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/ or on 2p2 at http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/variance-winrate-simulator-674065/