Pot Entitlement – It’s Not Over Till It’s Over

Posted on Sep 08, 2009 by Gugel in Poker Strategy

Dont go to scoop up the pot before the hand is over

Don't go to scoop up the pot before the hand is over

In NL hold’em, a very strong hand on the flop can become a marginal hand on the turn or river. But people have a very hard time letting go of a flopped monster. I call this phenomenon, “pot entitlement”. Simply put, they feel they are entitled to win the pot, even when the board evolves unfavorably. I’m definitely guilty of this myself. In the following hand, I really, really wanted to call the turn since I flopped 2 pair, but a fold is correct.

Hero (Button) ($243.10)
SB ($107.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4♠, 5♠
Hero bets $3, SB raises to $11, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($22) 3♣, 5♣, 4♣ (2 players)
SB bets $17, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($56) 2♠ (2 players)
SB bets $35, Hero folds

“But, Gugel, you flopped top two!” you say. True, but it’s a super dangerous board. If I raise on the flop, he’s going to fold all his air and get it in with hands that have good equity vs. me. It’s much better to wait for a safe turn (not a club, not a 2) and get it in. Unfortunately, the turn is a pretty disastrous card and the villain bets pretty big. The fact that I’m gonna be facing a river shove a huge percentage of the time and that my hand is super vulnerable even if I am ahead, makes this a fold.

Here’s another example:
Villain is a straightforward player that doesn’t get out of line.

Hero (BB) ($100)
SB (Button) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7♠, 6♠
SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) 7♥, 7♦, 9♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($16) T♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($16) J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $9, SB raises to $36.

A lot of people are going to call here because they flopped trips. Don’t fall into that trap. You’re not entitled to the pot. Always remember that the money in the pot is not yours until you showdown or the villain folds.  Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

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5 Responses to “Pot Entitlement – It’s Not Over Till It’s Over”

  1. Gugel

    08. Sep, 2009

    In Hand 2, you’re calling the flop because it’s really hard to get the villain to pay you off. A huge part of his range misses that flop and trying to get him to bluff is more valuable.

  2. BigT

    08. Sep, 2009

    It can often be a difficult situation, you really need to know your opponent. If you’re up against somebody very aggressive you almost have to stick to the pot since you can sure he’ll raise a dangerous board whether he has it or not.

    But yes, if an even half-way reasonable player starts calling a visible flush or straight draw you’d better really consider whether your set is worth it.

  3. Dell

    14. Sep, 2009

    Hi Gugel!

    I guess your example in the 2nd hand is obvious, but i don’t get why u played so weakish the flop-turn sequence – c’mon pal, it’s like u limped pocket Aces and wait the donkey make his 2pair. Instead of representing a bluff by betting, u chose to slowplay a set and represent a draw or some weak hand, which isn’t a good line unless you’re facing a complete maniac (if so, why do u choose to fold?)… I like you and admire your systematic approach to HU, yet this is weak-tight stuff…

  4. Gugel

    14. Sep, 2009

    @Dell

    I was actually really conflicted about this hand when I played it. I kept thinking “OMG, Gugel, this is so weak, I can’t believe you want to fold.” But after almost timing out, I decided to fold.

    I wasn’t super confident in my decision so I asked Ansky. He said obviously that’s a crumby position, but folding there is completely fine. I don’t think anyone considers Ansky weak-tight :)

  5. Dell

    15. Sep, 2009

    Hi Gugel,

    I don’t question the fold, but the line you chose to not charge him for possible draws or pairs. Bests!

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