Is Shoving the River the Best Play?

Posted on Jan 18, 2010 by Gugel in Poker Strategy

Here’s a pretty interesting hand I played today.  Villain’s stats:

VPIP BB: 34%
VPIP SB: 73%
3Bet: 12%
Checkraise: 14%
He’s somewhat aggressive on the flop, but calms down on later streets.

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $148.75
BB: $62.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with 6 of spades 7 of spades
Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) K of spades J of spades A of diamonds (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $6
Villain would likely 3bet KK, JJ, AA, AK and probably AJ preflop.  The hands I’m most worried about are QT and KJ.  I think he has a lot of combo draws in his range (hands like KT, JT, etc.) and I have decent equity and good bluffing opportunities on later streets.

Turn: ($19.00) J of clubs (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13.50, BB calls $13.50
I’m not gonna win the pot with 7 high and this is a really good card for me to bluff. He’s probably going to lay down at least some of his semi-bluffs and I can credibly bluff some rivers.

River: ($46.00) K of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks
I’m not quite sure if shoving or checking is the best play.  I don’t think he check calls the turn with Jx, but how many kings are in his range?  Post a comment with your thoughts.

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9 Responses to “Is Shoving the River the Best Play?”

  1. yanzhang

    18. Jan, 2010

    Gugel,

    If he’s somewhat aggro on the flop, I’m going to put his flop range on 2pair + better, any Ax, any flush draw, some gutshots like lonely Ts and Qs, and occasionally air.

    I don’t think he has many Ks in his range. I imagine that if he is this kind of player then his flop c/r % would be much higher than 14% (at least 25%?). You have him on 14%, which looks pretty much like the right % for the range I’ve given and consistent with the “aggro on flop, slows down after” style. That said, KQ and TK may at times play this way.

    The turn check, besides making monsters stronger and AK weaker (but still calling you) probably turns most Ax into bluff catchers, which is consistent with his c/c line. He definitely still has draws and such, but I think all the gutshots have folded by now. If he has draws, they’re probably flush draws or paired draws. KQ and KT are here still.

    River, like you said, is interesting. I take out Js and monsters from his range because he doesn’t c/c turn like you said, I assume his range looks mostly like an A or missed flush draws (maybe both), with a few combinations of K (KT, KQ, etc.). You have 2 of the spades, so I’d give him something like around 10 combinations of the spade draws. There are a lot more As though.

    I don’t like shoving here, but I think the two options are about equal. Not that I’m that scared of the K (K’s sometimes bet the river, and I don’t think he has a K that much by my analysis above), but betting the river is really equivalent to trying to get As to fold, I think. If he is a decent hand reader I probably check back – I feel you took your chance on the turn – considering you were bet/folding-ing turn anyway it isn’t like you missed an opportunity. Of course, if he’s a bad hand reader and your image is good I would shove, because there are def a lot of A’s in his range.

    A good question (which I don’t really have a good idea of) is if against decent hand readers your line reps a full house at all (most Js don’t call a c/r on the flop, many Ks dont really bet turn) and you might get hero-called with an A? Maybe I’m leveling myself here.

    -Y

  2. The Poker Meister

    18. Jan, 2010

    Pretty certain he’s calling any Ax hand. I’m no heads-up specialist, but I disagree with shoving the river. Although this is a pretty miserable board for Ax, he’s shown that he’s calling you down the whole way. I also don’t think he’s setting you up for a check / raise.

    His flop raise may put him on a monster hand like QsXs… If he has a lone Q – he’s winning the pot – anything less is a split (i.e. Tx). Therefore, I’m going to assume [read hope] he’s on a draw, yet not risk my entire stack if he does decide to hero call. I think he’s on a draw as much as he’s on an Ax hand, especially a monster draw QsXs Therefore, I bet ~$15-20 into $46 on the river making it look like a value bet. I think you’re folding out all of the drawing hands (particularly the Qx hand which beats your playing the board) without risking him hero calling. Given the prior action, though, I just don’t think he’s folding an Ax hand.

  3. yanzhang

    18. Jan, 2010

    By “hero-called with an A” I mean “hero-called with less than an A” of course. I hope it is implied that I think a lot of players, good or bad, may call with an A for different reasons.

    @Poker Meister: The only monster draw that you’d want to bluff out are the Q hi ones, and there are very few combinations of those and a lot more Axs. This is why I pretty much ignore those and think the question really is “are you folding As.”

  4. The Poker Meister

    19. Jan, 2010

    @YanZhang – While agree that you want to bluff out the Q high draws, I want to bluff out all draws, since I’m splitting with any non-Queen hand. I would rather take the pot whole than split it.

    I guess it’s a matter of how much is the pot worth to you? Is it worth throwing good money after bad in the event you have a stubborn Ace, or are you content with taking your money back minus rake?

  5. yanzhang

    19. Jan, 2010

    @Poker Meister: hmm… I guess my whole point is we really aren’t splitting that often (i.e. there are very few draws in the range, at least compared to A’s), and I’d argue most of his range are A’s. If you disagree, then let me know why because I think that’s the most important issue here.

  6. Gugel

    20. Jan, 2010

    I thought about this hand for a bit and I think if the river was a blank, shoving is best. When the king rolls off on the river though, I think I have to check and give up.

    Here’s my reasoning: If I actually had a jack, I wouldn’t shove the river and there are almost no kings in my range. Therefore, when I shove, it’s most likely a bluff. It’s kinda hard to say if the villain will think this logically about the hand, but there will be better spots…

  7. The Poker Meister

    20. Jan, 2010

    Gugel – What was the outcome?

  8. Gugel

    20. Jan, 2010

    I checked the river. Villain had ATo.

  9. jamarcus

    01. Feb, 2010

    lol @ J being a “really good card to bluff.”

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