Is your brain being overloaded?

I have an assignment for you.  I want you to run a mile, juggle 3 balls for 15 minutes and spin a hula hip around your waist 100 times.  Unless you’re a well trained circus performer, you instinctively know that you won’t get ANYTHING done if you do everything at once.    You have to split it up and concentrate on ONE THING AT A TIME.

So why do you think it’s different when you’re playing poker?

• Why do you play poker and watch TV?
• Why do you play poker and browse TwoPlusTwo?
• Why do you play poker and talk to your friends on the phone?

When you multi-task, your energy is being spent on just paying attention to everything that’s happening.  Instead, you SHOULD be concentrating on adjusting to your opponents and improving your game.  You might feel like your accomplishing more when you multi-task, but that’s an ILLUSION.

Multi-tasking isn’t always a bad idea.  It’s fine if  it’s a simple task and the stakes aren’t high.  You can obviously drive your car and listen to music (but I bet that a professional race car driver keeps the radio off).

When you’re playing poker, RESIST the temptation to multi-task.  Shut off your browser and TV.  Don’t answer your cell phone.  Remove all distractions.  Respect the game and give it your full attention.

I’ll prove it to you.  A study by M.I.T.  researchers had students try to beat a series of challenges.   They did stuff like memorize strings of numbers, solve word problems and shoot basketballs into a hoop.

• If the students had average performance, they’d get a small reward.
• If they were significantly above average, they got a medium reward.
• And if they were way above average, they got a big cash prize.

You’d expect that the bigger the reward, the better the students would perform, right?  In other words, if the big cash prize was $5,000, you’d think the students would perform way better than if the prize was only $100.

The study had a surprising result.  If the students were required to do even a little bit of thinking, the large cash prize led to WORSE performance.

Now that’s a really surprising result.  So they replicated the study across the world.  They tried it in India were the huge cash prize was 2 months salary.  Again, the higher cash rewards led to WORSE performance.  The only time cash incentives actually work is for purely physical labor.

There is a catch though.  You do need SOME money to be motivated.  You need just enough so you don’t worry about paying your rent and you can just concentrate about thinking about poker.

So if money doesn’t motivate people, what does?  There are 3 main factors that are important to motivation.

1. Autonomy – do what you want to do, when you want to do.
2. Challenge & Mastery – humans just like to get better at stuff.
3. Purpose – what’s the big picture, what do you want to accomplish in life?

To be a motivated professional poker player, you need to be self-directed, have a unyielding desire to master the game, and have a clear sense of purpose  (not just “I want to make a lot of money”).

Check out the video below for more info:

Poker Conspiracy Theories - Put on Your Tin Foil Hats

The UIGEA was passed in 2006 and made it harder for U.S. players to deposit money on poker sites.  But how and why was it pushed through Congress so quickly (and sneakily)?  Put on your tin foil hats – here are 3 crazy conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy Theory #1: U.S. based casinos pushed through the UIGEA legislation.

Consider these facts:

• In 2000, Harrah’s Entertainment was the 37th largest contributor to Bill Frist’s re-election campaign.
• In 2002, Harrah’s Entertainment was the 18th largest contributor.
• In 2006, Frist pushes through the UIGEA legislation.

Harrah’s wanted to push out international competitors.  It would be too hard dislodging PartyPoker, PokerStars and FullTilt from their dominant positions.  Harrah’s figured the UIGEA would be repealed in a year and two and that would give them enough time to develop their software.    Unfortunately, they miscalculated and the legislation is lasting far longer than they anticipated.

Conspiracy Theory #2: Credit card companies pushed through UIGEA.

Back in the day, you could send money via FTP or Stars to buy PokerTracker.  Transferring money via poker rooms provided a way for consumers to bypass credit card fees.  The credit card companies were worried that peer-to-peer transfers would catch on for regular consumers.  Anyone could pay for anything without any fees (and kill their profits)!  Even if the chances are small that P2P money transfers would take off, the potential consequences for credit cards are enormous.  Therefore, pushing through UIGEA might have been a +EV move.

The credit card industry is worth hundreds of billions of dollars.  They definitely have the resources and connections to get it done.

Conspiracy Theory #3: The UIGEA was pushed through to stop money laundering.

Let’s say you want to transfer your friend $10,000.  If you give him a check, that automatically triggers your bank to send an alert to the U.S. government.

But now, let’s say you transfer $10,000 to your friend on Full Tilt.  The U.S. government has no idea that happened.  The only way it would know is if you reported it on your tax returns.  Guess what?  Criminal enterprises aren’t gonna be honest on their tax returns.  There’s only a tiny, tiny percentage of people that are using poker rooms for money laundering or other illegal purposes, but unfortunately, that tiny percentage is enough to ruin it for everyone else.  The U.S. government doesn’t wanna give criminal enterprises free reign.  The UIGEA was passed to stop money laundering.

————————————————————————————————————

These conspiracy theories may be a little far-fetched, but they’re definitely thought-provoking

General Tab
So the first part of the Premium section is the “General” tab.  You get to see some of the data that’s available to all users — total number of hands, bottom line, their winrate, etc.  Premium-only stats like VPIP, PFR, and Aggression Frequency are here too.  The chart on the right compares Isildur’s stats to Top Winners.  You can see that he’s looser and more aggressive than the Top Winners because his trangle (the red one) overlaps the triangle of Top Winners (the gray one).

PTR Premium General

General Tab: Pre-flop
Now, as we scroll down the page, we get into more detailed Pre-flop stats.  You can see his VPIP in the SB and the BB, his 3betting, 4 betting and shoving tendencies, and the likelihood he will fold his blinds to a steal.

PTR Premium General - Pre-Flop Stats

General Tab: Pre-flop – 3Bet
We can also drill down deeper into all of the pre-flop stats.  For example, if I click “3bet”, I can see how Isildur’s 3betting tendencies compare with Top Winners using the chart on the right.

PTR Premium General - Preflop 3bet

General Tab: Flop
Further down on the page, we can get into more detailed flop, turn and river statistics.

PTR Premium General - Flop Stats

General Tab: Showdown
Showdown stats are here too.

Results Tab
The “Results” tab shows a line graph with the overall amount of money Isildur won and a bar graph with the number of hands he put in on a specific day.

PTR Premium Results - All Stakes

Results Tab: Adjusting Stakes
You can also adjust the graph to include hands from just a specific game/level.  In this case, I chose $500/$1000 PLO HU.  You can also set a specific date range.  That could be particularly useful if you’re looking at a player with a long history.  He might have been a poor player 3 years ago, but he could be really good now…

PTR Premium Results - $500/$1000 PLO

Positions Tab
In the “Positions” tab, you can see how much money he won (or lost) in the BB and the SB.  As expected, Isildur1 has lost money in the BB and won money on the button.

PTR Premium Positions

Vs Tab
The “Vs” tab gives you a ton of sorting options on who he lost money to and who he won money from.  It also let’s you easily see how Isildur1’s VPIP, PFR, CR, and Aggression compares with other players using the graph on the right.

PTR Premium VS

Premium Table Finder
The Premium Table Finder is my favorite part of the Premium section.  It gives you a score on how juicy a table is and you can drill down to see the stats of the individual players sitting in.  In this case, Pinedale looks pretty fishy.  There no one with over 20,000 hands of experience and the majority of players are losers.

PTR Premium Table Finder

PokerTableRatings Premium is still in beta. Expected launch date is still to be determined.

Russia has the Best HU NL Players

In my previous post, I talked about the 5 countries that have the worst HU NL players.  Now, as promised, here are the 5 countries with the best heads up players. (At this point, I figured I’d just share the whole list).  Congrats to you Russians.  You are the best HU NL players.

Personally, I’m really surprised that Americans are so far down the list.  I thought we’d be high up since we invented the game…

Again, this data is from PokerTableRatings.com which looked at Full Tilt players that played over 1,000 hands in 2010.

Switzerland Has the Worst HU NL Players

Ever play HU NL against a guy from Switzerland?  If you haven’t, you’re missing out according to some data from PokerTableRatings.com.  PTR analyzed Full Tilt players that played over 1,000 hands in 2010.  As expected, the majority of players are losers, but the Swiss take the number 1 spot as the worst heads up players!  Only 17.4% are winners.  Here are 5 countries that have the greatest percentage of losing HU NL players:

Stay tuned for next weeks post with the 5 countries that have the greatest percentage of winning players. Post a comment with your guess on which country will get the number 1 spot.

"Boards don't hit back."

Bruce Lee is widely considered to be the best fighter of all time.  He died when he was 32 from an allergic reaction to a painkiller, but his philosophy and wise words (which are shockingly relevant to poker) continue to be an inspiration.  Here are 20 lessons you can learn from Bruce Lee.

Mental Toughness

1. Don’t fear failure.
2. Optimism is a faith that leads to success.
3. A good martial artist does not become tense but ready.

Tilt & Variance

1. Know the difference between a catastrophe and an inconvenience. To realize that it’s just an inconvenience [...] is part of waking up.
2. Like everyone else you want to learn the way to win, but never to accept the way to lose — to accept defeat. To learn to die is to be liberated from it.
3. The happiness that is derived from excitement is like a brilliant fire — soon it will go out.
4. A martial artist has to take responsibility for himself and face the consequences of his own doing.
5. Forget about winning and losing; forget about pride and pain.
6. Walk on.

Adjusting to Your Opponents

1. When the opponent expands I contract and when he contracts, I expand. And when there is an opportunity, “I” do not hit, “It” hits all by itself.
2. Let your opponent graze your skin and you smash into his flesh; let him smash into your flesh and you fracture his bones; let him fracture your bones and you take his life.
3. You can never invite the wind, but you must leave the window open.
4. Don’t get set into one form, adapt it and build your own, and let it grow, be like water.
5. Truth has no path.
6. Jeet Kune Do favors formlessness so that it can assume all forms and since Jeet Kune Do has no style, it can fit in with all styles. As a result, Jeet Kune Do utilizes all ways and is bound by none.

Improving

1. Even today, I dare not say that I have reached a state of achievement. I’m still learning, for learning is boundless.
2. We have great work ahead of us, and it needs devotion and much, much energy.
3. Use only that which works, and take it from any place you can find it.
4. When you’re talking about fighting, as it is, with no rules, well then, baby you’d better train every part of your body!

Table Selection

1. The worst opponent you can come across is one whose aim has become an obsession.

Bruce Lee’s words can help you find the path to poker enlightenment.  Next time you’re facing a difficult decision at a poker table, maybe you should just ask myself “What would Bruce Lee do?”

I’m kidding of course.  There’s still plenty of weak, exploitable players in HU (despite what some people think).  At many points in your poker career, you’ll feel like the game is unbeatable.  We’ve all been there, but dedication in the face of adversity is what makes the good players great.

Props to IheardJoeblows for creating the video.  Read the thread to get the inside jokes.  Here are the lyrics:

What?
How the fuck did he call that? Ugh, then he sucks out. Ah fucking motha, ugh. Ugh.
These chips man, they’re fucking crazy. What’s wrong with these chips? Crazy chips! That’s what I call them.
Man, if they weren’t crazy, they would be like coming towards me in some sort of patternized notion man.

I’m quitting the game, when I reach in my wallet
No money heads up, everyone’s solid.
I move in ahead
And still you gonna call it
Then you suck out, cause everyone’s solid.

I’m quitting the game, when I reach in my wallet
No money heads up, everyone’s solid.
I move in ahead
And still you gonna call it
Then you suck out, cause everyone’s solid.

It doesn’t make sense, I’m on the small tables
but this heads up, it means a small table.
I’m really depressed, looking for an anchor
What should i do, stab me in the ankle?
No, I won’t do it, this isn’t my fault.
It’s the government and not enough donks.
The good players just dive bomb and win,
Thinking of a plan when a maniac moves in.

What should i do? Raise every button?
It’s like trying to raise Benjamin Button
He doesn’t grow up, he just gets younger
and after while he slow plays with under.
I’m fucking depressed, working real hard
To be a good player and play with these cards.
And then i realize, I’m not that good
I don’t have a shot so i really should…

I’m quitting the game, when I reach in my wallet
No money heads up, everyone’s solid.
I move in ahead
And still you gonna call it
Then you suck out, cause everyone’s solid.

I’m quitting the game, when I reach in my wallet
No money heads up, everyone’s solid.
I move in ahead
And still you gonna call it
Then you suck out, cause everyone’s solid.

Ah man, I’m just too lazy to work hard for easy money.
Jay-gee mofus.
Wanna know something? I have a job.
Unlike like you, I work hard during the day.
So maybe I’m a little lazy, yea?
You fucking degenerate.
God, what kind of cruel asshole would kick someone when they’re down!?
Jay-gee mofus.

Take a look at the graph below. The most of amount of profit potential is in the “development” and “introduction” phase.  Starting a business in these two phases, however, carries a phenomenal amount of risk.  A lot of industries look like they’re in the “development” and “introduction” phase before stalling.  The “growth” phase is where you wanna break into the industry.  The early pioneers have proved that the industry is profitable and they have developed successful strategies that you can imitate and improve on.

Industry Life Cycles

So where is poker in the industry life cycle?  Notice the remarkable similarity between the general industry life cycle graph above the number of WSOP entrants as visualized in the graph below:

Poker Industry Life Cycle

In my opinion, now’s not the time to get into poker.  If you didn’t start playing before 2006-2007, I think you’ll be trying to squeeze into a much narrower window of opportunity.  That’s not to say that someone just starting poker now can’t make it big.  They can.  It will just require more blood, sweat and tears to get there.

There are 3 main reasons why the poker industry has declined.

1. Natural maturity of the industry is responsible for 70% of the decline.  Just like any other business, a big profit margin quickly attracts competition and that competition eventually drives down the profit margin. The profit margin of every industry always moves towards  (but never reaches) zero.
2. UIGEA is responsible for 20% of the decline.  Passed in 2006, the legislation made American poker players jump through hoops to get money online and Party Poker withdrew from the U.S. market.  If the UIGEA is repealed and poker becomes regulated in the U.S., the industry will rebound but it will never return to anywhere near 2006 levels.
3. The global recession – responsible for 10% of the decline.  Fish have less money to deposit.

For the record, I’m friends with the guys at DeucesCracked and PokerTableRatings, but I’ve tried to remain unbiased in my evaluation.  I’m on the fence if they’ve hurt or helped the poker economy, but either way, I think they’re making a relatively minor impact in the grand scheme of things.

1. Online training sites – The availability of great coaching resources has made the competition tougher.  It’s also much easier for you to get better at poker.  It balances out.
2. Online databases – On one hand, online databases make bumhunting easier and limit action.  On the other hand, it lets you table select much more effectively and increases your profit margin.  Also, the guys at PTR use their data to help prevent cheating scandals (like UB/Absolute) from harming the industry.   It balances out.

The main reason why poker is tougher these days is the natural maturation of the industry.  But is online poker dead?  Of course not!  If you have the right mix of dedication, talent, intelligence, and guts, you can still be really successful.

VPIP BB: 34%
VPIP SB: 73%
3Bet: 12%
Checkraise: 14%
He’s somewhat aggressive on the flop, but calms down on later streets.

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $148.75
BB: $62.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with 6 7
Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) K J A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $6
Villain would likely 3bet KK, JJ, AA, AK and probably AJ preflop.  The hands I’m most worried about are QT and KJ.  I think he has a lot of combo draws in his range (hands like KT, JT, etc.) and I have decent equity and good bluffing opportunities on later streets.

Turn: ($19.00) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13.50, BB calls $13.50
I’m not gonna win the pot with 7 high and this is a really good card for me to bluff. He’s probably going to lay down at least some of his semi-bluffs and I can credibly bluff some rivers.

River: ($46.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks
I’m not quite sure if shoving or checking is the best play.  I don’t think he check calls the turn with Jx, but how many kings are in his range?  Post a comment with your thoughts.