VPIP BB: 34%
VPIP SB: 73%
3Bet: 12%
Checkraise: 14%
He’s somewhat aggressive on the flop, but calms down on later streets.

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $148.75
BB: $62.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with 6 7
Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) K J A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $6
Villain would likely 3bet KK, JJ, AA, AK and probably AJ preflop.  The hands I’m most worried about are QT and KJ.  I think he has a lot of combo draws in his range (hands like KT, JT, etc.) and I have decent equity and good bluffing opportunities on later streets.

Turn: ($19.00) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13.50, BB calls $13.50
I’m not gonna win the pot with 7 high and this is a really good card for me to bluff. He’s probably going to lay down at least some of his semi-bluffs and I can credibly bluff some rivers.

River: ($46.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks
I’m not quite sure if shoving or checking is the best play.  I don’t think he check calls the turn with Jx, but how many kings are in his range?  Post a comment with your thoughts.

HokieGreg

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a heads up cash game player and I don’t have much experience in HU sit ‘n’ goes.  While obviously there’s a lot of overlap, there are some really important differences (e.g. playing with 10 – 30 big blinds).  To get more insight into HU SNGS, I interviewed the one, the only, HokieGreg.  He’s currently ranked 4th on Sharkscope for Total Profit in 2009 in the $101-$300 level.

Background:
Greg (HokieGreg HU) is 26 year old professional poker player from Richmond, VA. He graduated from Virginia Tech in 2005 and went on to graduate school at Virginia Commonwealth University, before dropping out to pursue poker as a career. He’s been playing professional poker for about 2 years now and his long-term goal is to set himself up for a career in real estate investing.

What got you into HU SNGs?  Why not fullring SNGs?  Why not cash games?
Some people are “natural” poker players. They learn the basics, start playing a lot, establish pretty solid handreading abilities, and crush. I’m not one of those people. I spent about 2 years being a fish and 3 years as a marginal winner before I really started to understand the importance of bankroll management, tilt control, and self-discipline. In the Fall of 2006, I found the 2p2 forums and started grinding 10 NL 6max cash. I deposited $60 on Stars (lol bankroll management) and over about 150,000 hands I was overrolled to move up to 50NL. This is the first time I ever experienced what it was like to make money with very low risk (after I was up a few buyins initially) and learn how to deal with being a regular at a certain limit (yes, there are regulars at 10NL). It was a pretty exciting and motivating experience for me. For the first time, I realized that through hard work and discipline, it is possible to make consistent money playing poker…albeit at very low stakes in this case. I was hooked.

Fast forward a few months, I tilted off my entire bankroll that I had built playing 6 max cash (mainly due to life stress). I “quit poker” for a few months (we’ve all said we ‘quit poker’ before right?). I really felt like I just beat myself due to a lack of discipline and emotional control, so I really wanted to give it another shot. In March of 2007, I was randomly browsing the Heads Up forum on 2p2 and came across a link to a blog written by BCM11. I was amazed to read how he seemed to make a profit most days and almost certainly every month. I had always felt pretty comfortable playing heads up. Focusing on one person rather than a full table was appealing to me. Also, being the action junky that I am, I liked the idea of being allowed to raise 70% of my buttons. I deposited $40 on Pokerstars on March 17, 2007, starting at the $5 regular speed husngs, and I haven’t deposited again since. I slowly worked my way up the levels and am now playing 220-550 on a regular basis. Since that deposit, I’ve made approximately $250k including bonuses/rakeback/etc.

If you had to teach a friend to play HU SNGs profitably, where would you tell him to start?  Any 2+2 posts, videos, articles, you particularly recommend?
When you first start taking husng/poker seriously, START OVERROLLED. Don’t ever set short term monetary goals (i.e. don’t say “I’m going to make $200/week). Understanding variance and the importance of emotional control is essential (search gigabet tilt article on 2p2). Start at a stake where the money doesn’t mean a whole lot to you. Just focus on learning to make +ev decisions on every street of every hand. Do not put yourself in a financial situation where you have to be results oriented because you have bills to pay. You are not a pro yet. Get off your butt and get a job for a while (I did).

Also:

• Register an account at 2p2 and start posting in the HUNL forum. There is a huge difference between reading 2p2 strategy threads and actually jumping into the fire and responding to threads. If you post poor advice, the regular posters will probably jump all over you. This forces you to be hyper-critical of your thought process. Stop browsing threads and saying to yourself, “I know, I know, I know”…If you knew you would be making bank. Drop the ego and get active.
• HUSNG.com (shameless plug). Best resource for husng vids. Bunch of great coaches from all different stake levels and different playing styles. While the monthly subscription fee might seem like a lot to you now, try to look at it as a longterm investment. If you use our resources correctly, you should make back much more than you invested long term.
• An hour of studying is just as productive as an hour of playing. Practice does not make perfect in poker, practice makes permanent. It is a lot harder to unlearn bad habits, than to just learn the right way in the first place.
• 1 table until you have a solid winrate over a large sample size.
• www.husng.com/variance: Use this tool to get an idea of how your swings can be with your winrate. When I am running bad, I just plug my stats into this program and click update over and over. Really puts things into perspective.

Do you prefer FT or PS for HU SNGs?  Why?
I play almost entirely on Stars. Stars has the best software and security. I have a lot of trust in Stars support. I also like their VPP system because it motivates me to play more to reach milestones for bonuses.

What are your top 3 tips for HU SNGs?

1. Create an aggressive image by raising your button wide and cbetting a lot. We want an aggressive image so that our big hands get paid off and so that we are difficult to deal with. Don’t be a nit.
2. Always think in terms of effective stacks (the shortest stack at the table). All decisions are based on the current effective stack. It makes absolutely no strategic difference whether you are the chipleader or the shortstack.
3. When stacks get short, it is a MUCH bigger mistake to play too tight than to play too aggressive. If it’s close, just be aggro and get it in. Learn Sage/Nash for endgame. Don’t be a nit.

What are some common mistakes for HU SNGers?

1. Bet sizing according to strength of your hand. The easiest guys to play are the ones that cbet a standard size, but then when they flop big they cbet larger. Other examples: large 2 barrel sizes are ALWAYS the nuts, turn check/minraise is always the nuts, etc etc etc. Don’t be transparent.
2. When effective stacks get short, most people play way too tight. Learn Sage or Nash and be aggro.
3. Ignoring the importance of mastering the “mental game.” Knowing when/why you tilt and how to deal with tilt, when to take breaks, how to avoid auto-piloting, how to get in more volume, etc. Most people just play and ignore these important issues and just focus on improving their strategy. I’ll take a player that has complete mental/emotional control that has an above average understanding of strategy over a really good strategy player with huge tilt/auto-piloting problems any day.

In your opinion, who are the top 5 HU SNG players?

• Skilled_Sox
• Jovial Gent
• Croixdawg
• Dibasio
• Adonis

**In no particular order. Just listing guys that play on Stars. I don’t really know Full Tilt players.

What’s the craziest bluff you ever pulled in an HU SNG?  What’s the thinnest valuebet?  What’s the craziest hero call?

Craziest Bluff: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/1135010
Playing very good cash player. Standard preflop raise and cbet. He hasn’t been calling too wide out of position and hasn’t been floating wide when he has called my cbet. I put him on AX/8X on flop. My plan initially was just to shut down turn/river, since I didn’t really feel like I could rep anything that would get me a fold. Then the river a 3 and the lightbulb went off. I’m like 99% sure he doesnt have a 3 in his range (barring A3) on the flop and am pretty certain he is just value betting AX with his river lead. I don’t think he thinks I’m a blufftard, I think that me cbetting 3X/checking turn/shoving river is a believable line to him, and I know he is capable of folding hands when he knows he’s beat. Ship.

Thinnest Vbet: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/1135087
Played multiple games against decent Villain. He vbets really wide at weakness. On the river I know he would valuebet any heart. He knows I’m more than capable of bluffing. I think about a standard half pot valuebet, but realize he doesn’t have a heart and he knows that a lot of hearts are in my range and I would valuebet most of them. I think about how he thinks I would play Ah/Kh and I definitely think he thinks I would’ve at least cbet the flop and possibly raised the turn. I decide to overbet valuebet 1.5x the pot, trying to represent A/Khh, but knowing that he won’t put me on it and end up hero calling.

Sickest Hero Call: A few because I’m sexy like that. From the past few days:

1. http://tinyurl.com/ybvcf7f – Standard villain that never, ever c/r cbet with any piece of this board or AX and is def capable of bluffing 3 streets.
2. http://tinyurl.com/ybtoakt- Never plays a full house like this. Felt that he was frustrated because I was running him over. Don’t think he’d do this with AX either. Ship.

Honorable Mention:http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/1075090
** He had seen me small c/r his cbet wide a few times. He had min3bet me once before and showed when I folded. We obv had a pretty sick c/r-3bet dynamic going on, but I felt like he was def a spewtard enough to throw away his stack with complete air if I played back at one of his min3bets. Little different here bc we are limped, but I know he won’t give me credit for AX. I make small c/r with plan to induce a 3bet. He 3bets small and I felt like he would see a really small 4bet as me just trying to make a stand with air. I kinda expected him to shove the flop..when he flatted I really don’t have any reason to lead out turn bc I think he is going to shove or bet/fold when I check. Pretty cool hand imo.

What was your worst downsteak?  What is the most HU SNGs you won in a row?
Biggest downswing: 30 games. I’ve never really had big swings. I usually play a little lower stakes than I’m capable of beating. I like grinding with low stress.

Longest HUSNG Winstreak: Sharkscope says 9 in a row. I won 14 straight 220s yesterday actually, but had a few 4 man losses mixed in so not sure if that counts. I won 23 straight 11’s on Party Poker back in the day, but that was before Sharkscope’s time.

BluffBot: A Pretty Advanced Poker Bot

SuitedAces made an amazing post on the AnskyPoker.com HU Forums.  He’s a limit player that’s transitioning to NL and he brought up Hyperborean-Eqm, a poker bot that won the 2009 Poker Bot HU NL Championship.  Now Hyperborean-Eqm (made by a team from the University of Alberta) beat another poker bot, BluffBot for 1.8bb/100.  Unfortunately, you can’t play against Hyperborean-Eqm online, but you can play BluffBot!

And guess what, it’s actually not that bad!  I beat him (caught him bluffing in a big pot), but I was pretty impressed.  He adjusted pretty well to my game and it’s definitely an awesome learning tool.

I do wonder how much better Hyperborean-Eqm is and how long before a bot can grind out microstakes NL hold’em…

BB ($395.50)
Hero (SB) ($205.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Js, 2c
Hero bets $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12) 5c, 7h, 10d (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7
This is the first time he’s donked into me, so I have no idea what his donking-range is. Folding here is definitely standard, but there’s a lot of cards that can come on the turn that I can bluff.

Turn: ($26) 10s (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero raises to $42.50, BB calls $24.50
This is a really awesome card for me and if I call the flop, this is a must-bluff situation.

River: ($111) 7d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55.50
Here, I think I made a mistake. There is absolutely no need to bluff here. I’m only getting weaker hands to fold (like 68 or 89). My jack high might be good!

He ended up shoving over my river bet and I obviously folded.

Before you fire out a bluff, always think about hands the villain might have that are stronger than yours and if the villain will fold those hands. If no stronger hand folds, then it’s a bad bluff! In this case, there just wasn’t many hands that the villain could conceivably have that are stronger than mine and would fold to my bet.

Don't go to scoop up the pot before the hand is over

In NL hold’em, a very strong hand on the flop can become a marginal hand on the turn or river. But people have a very hard time letting go of a flopped monster. I call this phenomenon, “pot entitlement”. Simply put, they feel they are entitled to win the pot, even when the board evolves unfavorably. I’m definitely guilty of this myself. In the following hand, I really, really wanted to call the turn since I flopped 2 pair, but a fold is correct.

Hero (Button) ($243.10)
SB ($107.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4♠, 5♠
Hero bets $3, SB raises to $11, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($22) 3♣, 5♣, 4♣ (2 players)
SB bets $17, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($56) 2♠ (2 players)
SB bets $35, Hero folds

“But, Gugel, you flopped top two!” you say. True, but it’s a super dangerous board. If I raise on the flop, he’s going to fold all his air and get it in with hands that have good equity vs. me. It’s much better to wait for a safe turn (not a club, not a 2) and get it in. Unfortunately, the turn is a pretty disastrous card and the villain bets pretty big. The fact that I’m gonna be facing a river shove a huge percentage of the time and that my hand is super vulnerable even if I am ahead, makes this a fold.

Here’s another example:
Villain is a straightforward player that doesn’t get out of line.

Hero (BB) ($100)
SB (Button) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7♠, 6♠
SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) 7♥, 7♦, 9♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($16) T♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($16) J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $9, SB raises to $36.

A lot of people are going to call here because they flopped trips. Don’t fall into that trap. You’re not entitled to the pot. Always remember that the money in the pot is not yours until you showdown or the villain folds.  Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

Back in May, I talked about the three things you need to master to become a great poker player.   But the key ingredient to greatness that I didn’t talk about is experience.  Beyond just playing lots of hands, experience includes watching training videos, getting coached, or posting in forums.  The more you play, the better you will get.  Just put in the time.

In Outliers: The Story of Success, Max Gladwell makes the argument that in order to master anything, you have to put in 10,000 hours of work.  Assuming an 8-hour day, that 1250 days or about 3.5 years (with no days off).

Take Bill Gates. Before he dropped out of Harvard and started Microsoft, he was programming like a maniac for 7 consecutive years.  Or take The Beatles.  When they got one of their first gigs in Germany, they played nonstop, all night long, seven days a week, for weeks on end.

Here’s a quick anecdote from Bill Buxton’s book Sketching User Experiences.

“A ceramics professor comes in on the first day of class and divides the students into two sections. He tells one half of the class that their final grade will be based exclusively on the volume of their production; the more they make, the better their grade. The professor tells the other half of the class that they will be graded more traditionally, based solely on the quality of their best piece.

At the end of the semester, the professor discovered that the students who were focused on making as many pots as possible also ended up creating the best pots, much better than the pots made by the students who spent all semester trying to create that one perfect pot.”

When I was in the 2 Months, 2 Million house this summer, I had a chance to ask Dani and Brian how much time they think they put into poker.  They said they definitely spent over 10,000 hours.

No matter how much talent you have, you have to put in the time in order to be successful.  Maybe 10,000 hours is not the magic number and it probably varies from industry-to-industry.  But I believe in the concept.  Poker is not an easy way to make money and just like anything else, it requires a lot of practice to master.

So here’s the practical, takeaway advice.  Don’t set goals for yourself that are out of your control.  Whether you win $3,000 this month or not is something that’s not entirely up to you.  Set goals on things you can control, like playing a certain number of hours, watching a certain number of videos, responding to a certain number of forum posts, etc.  Put in the time and success will follow.

$100NL
Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, As
Hero bets $3, BB raises to $10, Hero raises to $25, BB calls $15

These kinds of spots are easy when you actually hit a big hand on the flop, but are pretty challenging when you miss since the pot is already huge preflop (usually around 50BB).  The first step in developing a good 4bet pot postflop strategy is to understand the villain’s calling range.   In the over 170,000 hands I’ve played in HU, this situation has happened 153 times (that includes only the times we got to showdown).  So what kind of hands were the villains showing up with?

Pocket Pairs: Again, this is from a 153 hand sample.
22: 3
33: 1
44: 0
55: 2
66: 0
77: 1
88: 4
99: 4
TT: 6
JJ: 3
QQ: 1
KK: 0
AA: 5
There seems to be a big tendency for villains to call a 4bet with 88 – JJ and AA.

Top 10 Hands Villain Shows Up With: Again, this from a 153 hand sample.
AJ: 13
AQ: 7
KJ: 7
KQ: 6
TT: 6
AA: 5
88: 4
99: 4
AK: 4
AT: 4

Dangerous Cards: Villain has at least one of these cards in his hand.
T: 23 (15%)
J: 38 (25%)
Q: 27 (18%)
K: 30 (20%)
A: 42 (27%)
Jacks and aces are the most dangerous cards that can come on the flop.  A ten high flop is best to cbet bluff.  A flop that comes queen or king high is somewhere in between. 

This post was actually inspired my a 2+2 thread and is intended to just be the first step in helping you come up with a 4bet strategy (it’s very opponent specific).  Funny thing is, I had initially thought that a jack high board hit my opponent’s range the weakest.  The thread made me curious and look for hard data to back up my claim.  Guess I was wrong!  This just goes to show how important it is to constantly be criticizing and evaluating your own beliefs and assumptions.

Have something to add about strategy in 4bet pots?  Post a comment!

You'll see the biggest gains if you improve your play when you're running bad

Seth Godin had a great post on his blog today.  Even though he’s talking about marketing and customer service, his advice applies really well to poker.  Let’s say you have a bike race coming up and you obviously want to have the best time you possibly can.  The thing is,  everyone goes super fast on the downhill sections (limited only by physics and safety) and it’s really hard to get an edge on your opponents there.  On the uphill section though, through athleticism and will, you have a chance to actually make significant gains and do what your opponent cannot.

Poker seems like an easy game when you’re running well.  You’re hands keep hitting and you’re opponent keeps paying you off.  Well guess what, fish run hot too.  And when they do, they probably think poker is an easy game.  The truth is, a lot of your edge comes when you’re not running super hot – those marginal situations where a fish has no idea what he’s doing and you do.  Those are the uphill battles that you should set your sights on.

As Seth put it:

Most of your competition spend their days looking forward to those rare moments when everything goes right. Imagine how much leverage you have if you spend your time maximizing those common moments when it doesn’t.

Here are a few nuggets of wisdom:

1. A2-A5 are better than A6 and probably better than A7.
The advantage of being able to make a straight (though it’s rare) is pretty important. Let’s say you have A7 and hit a 7 on the flop. Is that really significantly better than having A5 and hitting a 5 on the flop? Or let’s say you hit an Ace on the flop. Is a 5 kicker significantly worse than a 7 kicker? Not by much. The benefit of being able to hit a wheel and winning a big pot probably counteracts any better pair/better kicker advantage A7 may have.

2. If you continuation bet the flop in a reraised pot, you should bet the turn.
If you 3bet or call a 3bet preflop, expect people to call your flop continuation bet with a wide range of hands. Their range shrinks considerably when calling a turn bet. In general, you should not cbet the flop in a reraised pot if you’re not going to cbet the turn.

3. Don’t play more than 4 tables.
You get your edge by developing strong reads on your opponents. Playing more than 4 tables makes that virtually impossible. There’s just too much going on.

Even if you don’t play 6max, I really encourage you to check out Ryan Fee’s 6max guide.

Note: In 6-max and fullring games, Morton’s theory might override Sklansky’s, but this is a HU blog, so we’ll ignore that for now.

Anyway, the traditional Fundamental Theory of Poker by David Sklansky states:
1. Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain.
2. Every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.
3. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain.
4. Every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

What it boils down to is that you want to make the same decision you would make if you could see your opponent’s cards.  I know, easier said than done.

To help you out, here are Gugel’s Fundamental Questions of Poker.

Question 1: (Betting for Value)
If I bet/raise, what weaker hands call?

Question 2: (Bluffing)
If I bet/raise, what stronger hands fold?

When I first started playing heads up no-limit, I put these two questions on Post-It notes and stuck them on the corners of my monitor.  Before I made any decision, I would try to answer the questions.  Here’s the thing though.  Only ONE question should have an answer.  That means if you don’t have a good answer for at least one of the questions, you’re doing something wrong AND if you think you have an answer to BOTH questions, you are doing something wrong.  Everytime you are the aggressor in a HU match, one and only one question should have an answer!

What about if your decision is to call or fold?  All you need to do is ask yourself those same two questions from the villain’s perspective.  If the villain bet or raised, what weaker hands is he expecting to call?  What stronger hands is he expecting to fold?

Go ahead and grab some Post-It notes, gentlemen.