Hands Reading on the Button

Take a look at the preflop hand ranges post. Notice that on the button, we are playing all aces. Out of the total 169 possible hands, we are playing 135 hands. 25 (18.5%) of those hands have an ace in it. 22 of our starting hands (16.3%) have a K. And only 14 (10.4%) of our hands have a 2. What are implications of these numbers? In short, we are much better able to represent an ace than we are a 2 because an ace is almost twice as likely to be in our starting hand range. Now we can extract some practical advice from this data.

Lets say you have 5s 6s on the button. You raise and the villain calls. The flop comes 2, 9, A rainbow. Since you have no showdown value and little chance of improving, you should usually bet if checked to. You can represent the ace very well since 18.5% of your starting hands will have an ace.

Now let’s imagine the same scenario only the flop comes 2, 9, J rainbow. Again you have no showdown value and little chance of improving, but now it is much less likely that the flop hit your range of hands. If you bet, you have less credibility than if an ace had come on the flop. In this scenario, you might choose to just give up right away and not even take a shot at it taking the pot.

Hands Reading on the Big Blind

The hand ranges from the big blind are even more important. We are playing 52 out of the 169 possible hands. 19 of them (36.5%) have an ace. 10 hands (19.2%) have a queen. Only 2 hands (3.8%) have a 3. When an ace flops, we can very credibly represent an ace with a strong kicker. If the flop comes 2,3,8 rainbow, we are much, much less likely to be able to represent a good hand to our opponent.

Some Conclusions

One of the most important things to take away from starting hand ranges, however, is that you can have a monster hand on any flop from both the BB and the button. Your bluffing frequency, however, should be highly dependent on the board texture. Likewise, you should be more likely to float and bluff your opponent on boards that really don’t hit your opponents range that well.

Now obviously I’ve analyzed my preflop starting hand strategy in this post, but lots of other strategies exist. Some villains raise 100% of buttons. Others don’t understand the value of position and play as many hands from the button as they do from the BB. Nevertheless, against all opponent, you should always be evaluating how well the villain’s range is hitting the board and base your strategies off that.

Despite what Hollywood would have you believe, fidgeting and avoid eye gaze show absolutely no correlation with lying. I’m here to tell you how it’s really done.

These indicators are based on a meta-analysis of hundreds of individual studies (Cues to Deception, 2003, DePaulo, Malone, Lindsay, Muhlenbruck, Charlton, & Cooper).

Weak Indicators:

• Was the story plausible and logical?
  • The story isn’t making much sense and there are a lot of seemingly irrelevant details thrown in.
• Nervous?
  • People can be nervous for a lot of different reasons. Just because someone is nervous does not mean that person is lying, although it is more likely.
• Higher pitch?
  • A higher voice pitch than usual is another slight indicator that someone may be stretching the truth.
• Presses lips more than usual?
  • There is a lot of variation on how frequently someone presses their lips together during a pause in their speech. You really have to know the person for this one to be useful.
• Raised chin?
  • An amateur poker player will act assertively when he is bluffing and act timidly when he has a strong hand. A raised chin in poker is a sign of assertiveness and hence, a bluff. This applies to beyond the poker table too. A raised chin might signal a lie.

Medium-Strength Indicators:

• Does the person admit a lack of memory or spontaneously correct their story?
  • When we tell the truth, we usually interrupt and correct ourselves as we go. Liars tend not to do this. They say their side of the story and stick to their guns.
• Dilated pupils
  • Although hard to detect, a person with dilated pupils is often in an increased state of arousal. One of things that might increase arousal (no, not the sexual kind) is lying.

Strong Indicators:

• Was the story direct and personal?
  • Most people don’t like to consider themselves liars. To internally get around the fact that they are lying, many people will resort to avoid saying “I” or “me”. For example, the lie “No, I do not think those jeans make you look fat,” might get actually said as “No, the jeans are fine.”
• Not cooperative?
  • The person wants to avoid the subject altogether. It’s a lot easier to say nothing than to lie.

None of these indicators guarantees a lie. After all, lie detection is a very inaccurate science. Lie detector machines, which are much better than humans, are only about 80% accurate. On a side note, here’s how to fool a lie detector machine. Bite your tongue right before you answer or press your toes to the floor when they ask you the base questions (Are you a human?, Did you ever fly to Saturn?, etc.).