Anyway, I want to give credit to MasterLJ for bringing my attention to the tool and more importantly, Kimberly at FFD Poker Forum for creating the spreadsheet in the first place. I made some minor adjustments and tweaks and I think you’ll find it really useful to help you get a better grasp of what you can expect.

To give you an idea what kind of variance is typical, I’ll share some of my results.
In the next 100 hands I play, there is a 34% chance I will make between $9.65 and $141.81. On other hand, there is also a 34% chance I will make between $9.65 and -$122.51. The probability that I am a long-term winner in the game is 96.6%. My average profit per hour is $32.48.

I’d love to hear what your stats are. Download the spreadsheet and fill in the values using Hold’Em Manager or PokerTracker3.

Update: Here’s another post for further reading about downswings and bankroll management.